#!/usr/bin/python # -*- coding: utf8 -*- import numpy as np from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA as stats_arima from pyFTS import fts class ARIMA(fts.FTS): """ Façade for statsmodels.tsa.arima_model """ def __init__(self, name, **kwargs): super(ARIMA, self).__init__(1, "ARIMA") self.name = "ARIMA" self.detail = "Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average" self.is_high_order = True self.model = None self.model_fit = None self.trained_data = None self.p = 1 self.d = 0 self.q = 0 self.benchmark_only = True self.min_order = 1 def train(self, data, sets, order=(2,1,1), parameters=None): self.p = order[0] self.d = order[1] self.q = order[2] self.order = max([self.p, self.d, self.q]) self.shortname = "ARIMA(" + str(self.p) + "," + str(self.d) + "," + str(self.q) + ")" old_fit = self.model_fit self.model = stats_arima(data, order=(self.p, self.d, self.q)) self.model_fit = self.model.fit(disp=0) def ar(self, data): return data.dot(self.model_fit.arparams) def ma(self, data): return data.dot(self.model_fit.maparams) def forecast(self, data, **kwargs): if self.model_fit is None: return np.nan ndata = np.array(self.doTransformations(data)) l = len(ndata) ret = [] ar = np.array([self.ar(ndata[k - self.p: k]) for k in np.arange(self.p, l)]) residuals = np.array([ar[k - self.p] - ndata[k] for k in np.arange(self.p, l)]) ma = np.array([self.ma(residuals[k - self.q: k]) for k in np.arange(self.q, len(ar) + 1)]) ret = ar + ma ret = self.doInverseTransformations(ret, params=[data[self.order - 1:]]) return ret