- Bugfixes and improvements on Ensemble FTS and distributed_benchmarks
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@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ def get_interval_methods():
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def get_probabilistic_methods():
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def get_probabilistic_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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return [quantreg.QuantileRegression, ensemble.EnsembleFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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return [arima.ARIMA, ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def run_point(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, transformation=None, indexer=None):
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def run_point(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, transformation=None, indexer=None):
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@ -417,19 +417,24 @@ def run_ahead(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, steps, resolution, windo
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:return: a dictionary with the benchmark results
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:return: a dictionary with the benchmark results
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"""
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"""
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import time
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import time
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from pyFTS import hofts, ifts, pwfts
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import numpy as np
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from pyFTS import hofts, ifts, pwfts, ensemble
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from pyFTS.partitioners import Grid, Entropy, FCM
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from pyFTS.partitioners import Grid, Entropy, FCM
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import Measures, arima, quantreg
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import Measures, arima, quantreg
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tmp = [hofts.HighOrderFTS, ifts.IntervalFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS, arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression]
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tmp = [hofts.HighOrderFTS, ifts.IntervalFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS, arima.ARIMA, ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS]
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tmp2 = [Grid.GridPartitioner, Entropy.EntropyPartitioner, FCM.FCMPartitioner]
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tmp2 = [Grid.GridPartitioner, Entropy.EntropyPartitioner, FCM.FCMPartitioner]
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tmp3 = [Measures.get_distribution_statistics]
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tmp3 = [Measures.get_distribution_statistics]
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pttr = str(partitioner.__module__).split('.')[-1]
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if mfts.benchmark_only:
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_key = mfts.shortname + " n = " + str(mfts.order) + " " + pttr + " q = " + str(partitioner.partitions)
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_key = mfts.shortname + str(mfts.order if mfts.order is not None else "") + str(mfts.alpha)
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mfts.partitioner = partitioner
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else:
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pttr = str(partitioner.__module__).split('.')[-1]
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_key = mfts.shortname + " n = " + str(mfts.order) + " " + pttr + " q = " + str(partitioner.partitions)
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mfts.partitioner = partitioner
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if transformation is not None:
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if transformation is not None:
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mfts.appendTransformation(transformation)
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mfts.appendTransformation(transformation)
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@ -456,9 +461,10 @@ def run_ahead(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, steps, resolution, windo
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return ret
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return ret
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def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, steps,resolution, models=None, partitioners=[Grid.GridPartitioner],
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def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, steps, resolution, train=0.8, inc=0.1, models=None, partitioners=[Grid.GridPartitioner],
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partitions=[10], max_order=3, transformation=None, indexer=None, dump=False,
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partitions=[10], max_order=3, transformation=None, indexer=None, dump=False,
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save=False, file=None, sintetic=False,nodes=None, depends=None):
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benchmark_models=None, benchmark_models_parameters = None,
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save=False, file=None, synthetic=False, nodes=None):
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"""
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"""
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Distributed sliding window benchmarks for FTS probabilistic forecasters
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Distributed sliding window benchmarks for FTS probabilistic forecasters
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:param data:
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:param data:
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@ -475,12 +481,21 @@ def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, steps,resolution, models=None,
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:param dump:
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:param dump:
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:param save: save results
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:param save: save results
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:param file: file path to save the results
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:param file: file path to save the results
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:param sintetic: if true only the average and standard deviation of the results
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:param synthetic: if true only the average and standard deviation of the results
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:param nodes: list of cluster nodes to distribute tasks
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:param nodes: list of cluster nodes to distribute tasks
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:param depends: list of module dependencies
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:param depends: list of module dependencies
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:return: DataFrame with the results
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:return: DataFrame with the results
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"""
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"""
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cluster = dispy.JobCluster(run_point, nodes=nodes) # , depends=dependencies)
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alphas = [0.05, 0.25]
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if benchmark_models is None and models is None:
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benchmark_models = [arima.ARIMA, arima.ARIMA, arima.ARIMA, arima.ARIMA, arima.ARIMA]
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if benchmark_models_parameters is None:
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benchmark_models_parameters = [(1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (2, 0, 0), (2, 0, 1), (2, 0, 2)]
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cluster = dispy.JobCluster(run_ahead, nodes=nodes) # , depends=dependencies)
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http_server = dispy.httpd.DispyHTTPServer(cluster)
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http_server = dispy.httpd.DispyHTTPServer(cluster)
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@ -511,10 +526,20 @@ def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, steps,resolution, models=None,
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else:
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else:
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pool.append(mfts)
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pool.append(mfts)
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if benchmark_models is not None:
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for count, model in enumerate(benchmark_models, start=0):
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for a in alphas:
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par = benchmark_models_parameters[count]
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mfts = model(str(par if par is not None else ""), alpha=a, dist=True)
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mfts.order = par
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pool.append(mfts)
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experiments = 0
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experiments = 0
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for ct, train, test in Util.sliding_window(data, windowsize, train):
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for ct, train, test in Util.sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, inc=inc):
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experiments += 1
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experiments += 1
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benchmarks_only = {}
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if dump: print('\nWindow: {0}\n'.format(ct))
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if dump: print('\nWindow: {0}\n'.format(ct))
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for partition in partitions:
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for partition in partitions:
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@ -524,7 +549,11 @@ def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, steps,resolution, models=None,
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data_train_fs = partitioner(train, partition, transformation=transformation)
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data_train_fs = partitioner(train, partition, transformation=transformation)
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for id, m in enumerate(pool,start=0):
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for id, m in enumerate(pool,start=0):
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job = cluster.submit(m, data_train_fs, train, test, ct, transformation)
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if m.benchmark_only and m.shortname in benchmarks_only:
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continue
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else:
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benchmarks_only[m.shortname] = m
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job = cluster.submit(m, data_train_fs, train, test, steps, resolution, ct, transformation)
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job.id = id # associate an ID to identify jobs (if needed later)
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job.id = id # associate an ID to identify jobs (if needed later)
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jobs.append(job)
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jobs.append(job)
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@ -559,4 +588,4 @@ def ahead_sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, steps,resolution, models=None,
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http_server.shutdown() # this waits until browser gets all updates
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http_server.shutdown() # this waits until browser gets all updates
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cluster.close()
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cluster.close()
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return benchmarks.save_dataframe_ahead(experiments, file, objs, crps_interval, crps_distr, times1, times2, save, sintetic)
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return bUtil.save_dataframe_ahead(experiments, file, objs, crps_interval, crps_distr, times1, times2, save, synthetic)
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38
ensemble.py
38
ensemble.py
@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import pandas as pd
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import math
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import math
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from operator import itemgetter
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from operator import itemgetter
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from pyFTS.common import FLR, FuzzySet, SortedCollection
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from pyFTS.common import FLR, FuzzySet, SortedCollection
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from pyFTS import fts, chen, cheng, hofts, hwang, ismailefendi, sadaei, song, yu
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from pyFTS import fts, chen, cheng, hofts, hwang, ismailefendi, sadaei, song, yu, sfts
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, quantreg
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, quantreg
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from pyFTS.common import Transformations
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from pyFTS.common import Transformations
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import scipy.stats as st
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import scipy.stats as st
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@ -127,24 +127,36 @@ class EnsembleFTS(fts.FTS):
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if 'method' in kwargs:
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if 'method' in kwargs:
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self.interval_method = kwargs.get('method','quantile')
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self.interval_method = kwargs.get('method','quantile')
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if 'alpha' in kwargs:
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self.alpha = kwargs.get('alpha', self.alpha)
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ret = []
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ret = []
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samples = [[k,k] for k in data[-self.order:]]
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samples = [[k] for k in data[-self.order:]]
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for k in np.arange(self.order, steps+self.order):
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for k in np.arange(self.order, steps + self.order):
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forecasts = []
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forecasts = []
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sample = samples[k - self.order : k]
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lags = {}
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lo_sample = [i[0] for i in sample]
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for i in np.arange(0, self.order): lags[i] = samples[k - self.order + i]
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up_sample = [i[1] for i in sample]
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forecasts.extend(self.get_models_forecasts(lo_sample) )
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# Build the tree with all possible paths
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forecasts.extend(self.get_models_forecasts(up_sample))
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root = tree.FLRGTreeNode(None)
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tree.buildTreeWithoutOrder(root, lags, 0)
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for p in root.paths():
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path = list(reversed(list(filter(None.__ne__, p))))
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forecasts.extend(self.get_models_forecasts(path))
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samples.append(sampler(forecasts, np.arange(0.1, 1, 0.2)))
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interval = self.get_interval(forecasts)
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interval = self.get_interval(forecasts)
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if len(interval) == 1:
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if len(interval) == 1:
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interval = interval[0]
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interval = interval[0]
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ret.append(interval)
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ret.append(interval)
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samples.append(interval)
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return ret
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return ret
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@ -183,7 +195,7 @@ class EnsembleFTS(fts.FTS):
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forecasts.extend(self.get_models_forecasts(path))
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forecasts.extend(self.get_models_forecasts(path))
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samples.append(sampler(forecasts, [0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.95 ]))
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samples.append(sampler(forecasts, np.arange(0.1, 1, 0.1)))
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grid = self.gridCountPoint(grid, resolution, index, forecasts)
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grid = self.gridCountPoint(grid, resolution, index, forecasts)
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@ -197,7 +209,7 @@ class EnsembleFTS(fts.FTS):
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class AllMethodEnsembleFTS(EnsembleFTS):
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class AllMethodEnsembleFTS(EnsembleFTS):
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def __init__(self, **kwargs):
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def __init__(self, name, **kwargs):
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super(AllMethodEnsembleFTS, self).__init__(name="Ensemble FTS", **kwargs)
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super(AllMethodEnsembleFTS, self).__init__(name="Ensemble FTS", **kwargs)
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self.min_order = 3
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self.min_order = 3
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@ -210,7 +222,7 @@ class AllMethodEnsembleFTS(EnsembleFTS):
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self.original_min = min(data)
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self.original_min = min(data)
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fo_methods = [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, cheng.TrendWeightedFTS,
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fo_methods = [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, cheng.TrendWeightedFTS,
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sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS, ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS]
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sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS, ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS, sfts.SeasonalFTS]
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ho_methods = [hofts.HighOrderFTS, hwang.HighOrderFTS]
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ho_methods = [hofts.HighOrderFTS, hwang.HighOrderFTS]
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@ -227,3 +239,5 @@ class AllMethodEnsembleFTS(EnsembleFTS):
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self.set_transformations(model)
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self.set_transformations(model)
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model.train(data, sets, order=o)
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model.train(data, sets, order=o)
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self.appendModel(model)
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self.appendModel(model)
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@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ passengers = pd.read_csv("DataSets/AirPassengers.csv", sep=",")
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passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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e = ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS()
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e = ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS(alpha=0.25, point_method="median", interval_method='quantile')
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fo_methods = [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, cheng.TrendWeightedFTS, sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS,
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fo_methods = [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, cheng.TrendWeightedFTS, sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS,
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ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS]
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ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS]
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@ -99,24 +99,28 @@ print(_normal)
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"""
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"""
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#"""
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#"""
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#_extremum = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers, 10, method="extremum")
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_extremum = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers, 10, method="extremum")
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#print(_extremum)
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print(_extremum)
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#_quantile = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers[:50], 40, method="quantile", alpha=0.25)
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_quantile = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers[:50], 10, method="quantile", alpha=0.05)
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#print(_quantile)
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print(_quantile)
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_quantile = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers[:50], 10, method="quantile", alpha=0.25)
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print(_quantile)
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#_normal = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers, 10, method="normal", alpha=0.25)
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_normal = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers[:50], 10, method="normal", alpha=0.05)
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#print(_normal)
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print(_normal)
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_normal = e.forecastAheadInterval(passengers[:50], 10, method="normal", alpha=0.25)
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print(_normal)
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#"""
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#"""
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#dist = e.forecastAheadDistribution(passengers, 20)
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#dist = e.forecastAheadDistribution(passengers, 20)
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#print(dist)
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#print(dist)
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bchmk.plot_compared_intervals_ahead(passengers[:120],[e], ['blue','red'],
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#bchmk.plot_compared_intervals_ahead(passengers[:120],[e], ['blue','red'],
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distributions=[True,False], save=True, file="pictures/distribution_ahead_arma",
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# distributions=[True,False], save=True, file="pictures/distribution_ahead_arma",
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time_from=60, time_to=10, tam=[12,5])
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# time_from=60, time_to=10, tam=[12,5])
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@ -28,8 +28,8 @@ diff = Transformations.Differential(1)
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DATASETS
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DATASETS
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"""
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"""
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passengers = pd.read_csv("DataSets/AirPassengers.csv", sep=",")
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#passengers = pd.read_csv("DataSets/AirPassengers.csv", sep=",")
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passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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#passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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#sunspots = pd.read_csv("DataSets/sunspots.csv", sep=",")
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#sunspots = pd.read_csv("DataSets/sunspots.csv", sep=",")
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#sunspots = np.array(sunspots["SUNACTIVITY"])
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#sunspots = np.array(sunspots["SUNACTIVITY"])
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@ -37,8 +37,8 @@ passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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#gauss = random.normal(0,1.0,5000)
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#gauss = random.normal(0,1.0,5000)
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#gauss_teste = random.normal(0,1.0,400)
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#gauss_teste = random.normal(0,1.0,400)
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#taiexpd = pd.read_csv("DataSets/TAIEX.csv", sep=",")
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taiexpd = pd.read_csv("DataSets/TAIEX.csv", sep=",")
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#taiex = np.array(taiexpd["avg"][:5000])
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taiex = np.array(taiexpd["avg"][:5000])
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#nasdaqpd = pd.read_csv("DataSets/NASDAQ_IXIC.csv", sep=",")
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#nasdaqpd = pd.read_csv("DataSets/NASDAQ_IXIC.csv", sep=",")
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#nasdaq = np.array(nasdaqpd["avg"][0:5000])
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#nasdaq = np.array(nasdaqpd["avg"][0:5000])
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@ -59,8 +59,8 @@ passengers = np.array(passengers["Passengers"])
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#print(lag)
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#print(lag)
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#print(a)
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#print(a)
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import benchmarks as bchmk
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#from pyFTS.benchmarks import benchmarks as bchmk
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#from pyFTS.benchmarks import distributed_benchmarks as bchmk
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import distributed_benchmarks as bchmk
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#from pyFTS.benchmarks import parallel_benchmarks as bchmk
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#from pyFTS.benchmarks import parallel_benchmarks as bchmk
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import Util
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import Util
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, quantreg, Measures
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, quantreg, Measures
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@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, quantreg, Measures
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#Util.cast_dataframe_to_synthetic_point("experiments/taiex_point_analitic.csv","experiments/taiex_point_sintetic.csv",11)
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#Util.cast_dataframe_to_synthetic_point("experiments/taiex_point_analitic.csv","experiments/taiex_point_sintetic.csv",11)
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#Util.plot_dataframe_point("experiments/taiex_point_sintetic.csv","experiments/taiex_point_analitic.csv",11)
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#Util.plot_dataframe_point("experiments/taiex_point_sintetic.csv","experiments/taiex_point_analitic.csv",11)
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#"""
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"""
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arima100 = arima.ARIMA("", alpha=0.25)
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arima100 = arima.ARIMA("", alpha=0.25)
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#tmp.appendTransformation(diff)
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#tmp.appendTransformation(diff)
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arima100.train(passengers, None, order=(1,0,0))
|
arima100.train(passengers, None, order=(1,0,0))
|
||||||
@ -137,6 +137,18 @@ bchmk.interval_sliding_window(sp500, 2000, train=0.8, inc=0.2, #models=[yu.Weigh
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
#"""
|
#"""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
bchmk.ahead_sliding_window(taiex, 2000, steps=10, resolution=100, train=0.8, inc=0.1,
|
||||||
|
partitioners=[Grid.GridPartitioner],
|
||||||
|
partitions= np.arange(10,200,step=10),
|
||||||
|
dump=True, save=True, file="experiments/taiex_ahead_analytic.csv",
|
||||||
|
nodes=['192.168.0.105', '192.168.0.106', '192.168.0.108', '192.168.0.109']) #, depends=[hofts, ifts])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
bchmk.ahead_sliding_window(taiex, 2000, steps=10, resolution=100, train=0.8, inc=0.1,
|
||||||
|
partitioners=[Grid.GridPartitioner],
|
||||||
|
partitions= np.arange(3,20,step=2), transformation=diff,
|
||||||
|
dump=True, save=True, file="experiments/taiex_ahead_analytic_diff.csv",
|
||||||
|
nodes=['192.168.0.105', '192.168.0.106', '192.168.0.108', '192.168.0.109']) #, depends=[hofts, ifts])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
"""
|
"""
|
||||||
from pyFTS.partitioners import Grid
|
from pyFTS.partitioners import Grid
|
||||||
from pyFTS import pwfts
|
from pyFTS import pwfts
|
||||||
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user