Bugfixes in Measures and optimizations on benchmarks
This commit is contained in:
Petrônio Cândido
parent
a446cec232
commit
95c6e90bfb
@ -239,6 +239,9 @@ def pmf_to_cdf(density):
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return df
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def heavyside(bin, target):
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return 1 if bin >= target else 0
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def heavyside_cdf(bins, targets):
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ret = []
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for t in targets:
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@ -255,24 +258,13 @@ def crps(targets, densities):
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:return: float
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'''
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_crps = float(0.0)
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if isinstance(densities, pd.DataFrame):
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l = len(densities.columns)
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n = len(densities.index)
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Ff = pmf_to_cdf(densities)
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Fa = heavyside_cdf(densities.columns, targets)
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for k in densities.index:
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_crps += sum([ (Ff[col][k]-Fa[col][k])**2 for col in densities.columns])
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elif isinstance(densities, ProbabilityDistribution.ProbabilityDistribution):
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l = len(densities.bins)
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n = 1
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Fa = heavyside_cdf(densities.bins, targets)
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_crps = sum([(densities.cummulative(val) - Fa[val][0]) ** 2 for val in densities.bins])
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elif isinstance(densities, list):
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if isinstance(densities, ProbabilityDistribution.ProbabilityDistribution):
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densities = [densities]
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l = len(densities[0].bins)
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n = len(densities)
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Fa = heavyside_cdf(densities[0].bins, targets)
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for df in densities:
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_crps += sum([(df.cummulative(val) - Fa[val][0]) ** 2 for val in df.bins])
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for ct, df in enumerate(densities):
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_crps += sum([(df.cummulative(bin) - (1 if bin >= targets[ct] else 0)) ** 2 for bin in df.bins])
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return _crps / float(l * n)
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@ -387,8 +379,9 @@ def get_distribution_statistics(data, model, **kwargs):
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_s1 = time.time()
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forecasts = model.predict(data, **kwargs)
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_e1 = time.time()
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ret.append(round(crps(data[model.order:], forecasts), 3))
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ret.append(round(crps(data[model.order:], forecasts[:-1]), 3))
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ret.append(round(_e1 - _s1, 3))
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ret.append(round(brier_score(data[model.order:], forecasts[:-1]), 3))
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else:
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skip = kwargs.get('steps_ahead_sampler', 1)
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forecasts = []
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@ -402,6 +395,7 @@ def get_distribution_statistics(data, model, **kwargs):
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start = model.order + steps_ahead
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ret.append(round(crps(data[start:-1:skip], forecasts), 3))
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ret.append(round(_e1 - _s1, 3))
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ret.append(round(brier_score(data[start:-1:skip], forecasts), 3))
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return ret
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@ -48,6 +48,38 @@ def __pop(key, default, kwargs):
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return default
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def get_benchmark_point_methods():
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"""Return all non FTS methods for point forecasting"""
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return [naive.Naive, arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression]
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def get_point_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for point forecasting"""
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return [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS,
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cheng.TrendWeightedFTS, sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS, hofts.HighOrderFTS, hwang.HighOrderFTS,
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pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_benchmark_interval_methods():
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"""Return all non FTS methods for point_to_interval forecasting"""
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return [ arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression]
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def get_interval_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for point_to_interval forecasting"""
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return [ifts.IntervalFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_probabilistic_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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return [ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_benchmark_probabilistic_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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return [arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression, knn.KNearestNeighbors]
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def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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"""
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Sliding window benchmarks for FTS forecasters.
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@ -141,6 +173,8 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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benchmark_methods = __pop("benchmark_methods", None, kwargs)
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benchmark_methods_parameters = __pop("benchmark_methods_parameters", None, kwargs)
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benchmark_pool = [] if benchmark_models is None else benchmark_models
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if benchmark_models != False:
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if benchmark_models is None and benchmark_methods is None:
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@ -151,13 +185,13 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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elif type == 'distribution':
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benchmark_methods = get_benchmark_probabilistic_methods()
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if isinstance(benchmark_models, list) :
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pool.extend(benchmark_models)
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elif benchmark_methods is not None:
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if benchmark_methods is not None:
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for transformation in transformations:
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for count, model in enumerate(benchmark_methods, start=0):
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par = benchmark_methods_parameters[count]
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mfts = model("", **par)
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pool.append(mfts)
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mfts.append_transformation(transformation)
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benchmark_pool.append(mfts)
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if type == 'point':
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experiment_method = run_point
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@ -184,6 +218,10 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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inc = __pop("inc", 0.1, kwargs)
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file = kwargs.get('file', "benchmarks.db")
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conn = bUtil.open_benchmark_db(file)
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for ct, train, test in cUtil.sliding_window(data, windowsize, train, inc=inc, **kwargs):
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experiments += 1
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@ -192,6 +230,18 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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partitioners_pool = []
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for model in benchmark_pool:
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for step in steps_ahead:
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kwargs['steps_ahead'] = step
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if not distributed:
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job = experiment_method(deepcopy(model), None, train, test, **kwargs)
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synthesis_method(dataset, tag, job, conn)
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else:
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job = cluster.submit(deepcopy(model), None, train, test, **kwargs)
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jobs.append(job)
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if partitioners_models is None:
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for transformation in transformations:
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@ -210,10 +260,6 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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if progress:
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rng1 = tqdm(steps_ahead, desc="Steps")
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file = kwargs.get('file', "benchmarks.db")
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conn = bUtil.open_benchmark_db(file)
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for step in rng1:
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rng2 = partitioners_pool
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@ -267,36 +313,6 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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conn.close()
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def get_benchmark_point_methods():
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"""Return all non FTS methods for point forecasting"""
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return [naive.Naive, arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression]
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def get_point_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for point forecasting"""
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return [song.ConventionalFTS, chen.ConventionalFTS, yu.WeightedFTS, ismailefendi.ImprovedWeightedFTS,
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cheng.TrendWeightedFTS, sadaei.ExponentialyWeightedFTS, hofts.HighOrderFTS, hwang.HighOrderFTS,
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pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_benchmark_interval_methods():
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"""Return all non FTS methods for point_to_interval forecasting"""
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return [ arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression]
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def get_interval_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for point_to_interval forecasting"""
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return [ifts.IntervalFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_probabilistic_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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return [ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS]
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def get_benchmark_probabilistic_methods():
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"""Return all FTS methods for probabilistic forecasting"""
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return [arima.ARIMA, quantreg.QuantileRegression, knn.KNearestNeighbors]
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def run_point(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, **kwargs):
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@ -336,7 +352,6 @@ def run_point(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, **kwarg
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if mfts.benchmark_only:
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_key = mfts.shortname + str(mfts.order if mfts.order is not None else "")
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mfts.append_transformation(partitioner.transformation)
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else:
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pttr = str(partitioner.__module__).split('.')[-1]
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_key = mfts.shortname + " n = " + str(mfts.order) + " " + pttr + " q = " + str(partitioner.partitions)
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@ -347,7 +362,7 @@ def run_point(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, **kwarg
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_key += str(method) if method is not None else ""
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_start = time.time()
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mfts.fit(train_data, order=mfts.order, **kwargs)
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mfts.fit(train_data, **kwargs)
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_end = time.time()
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times = _end - _start
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@ -392,7 +407,6 @@ def run_interval(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, **kw
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method = kwargs.get('method', None)
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if mfts.benchmark_only:
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mfts.append_transformation(partitioner.transformation)
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_key = mfts.shortname + str(mfts.order if mfts.order is not None else "") + str(mfts.alpha)
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else:
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pttr = str(partitioner.__module__).split('.')[-1]
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@ -404,7 +418,7 @@ def run_interval(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None, **kw
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_key += str(method) if method is not None else ""
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_start = time.time()
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mfts.fit(train_data, order=mfts.order, **kwargs)
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mfts.fit(train_data, **kwargs)
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_end = time.time()
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times = _end - _start
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@ -456,7 +470,6 @@ def run_probabilistic(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None,
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if mfts.benchmark_only:
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_key = mfts.shortname + str(mfts.order if mfts.order is not None else "") + str(mfts.alpha)
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mfts.append_transformation(partitioner.transformation)
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else:
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pttr = str(partitioner.__module__).split('.')[-1]
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_key = mfts.shortname + " n = " + str(mfts.order) + " " + pttr + " q = " + str(partitioner.partitions)
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@ -469,20 +482,15 @@ def run_probabilistic(mfts, partitioner, train_data, test_data, window_key=None,
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if mfts.has_seasonality:
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mfts.indexer = indexer
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try:
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_start = time.time()
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mfts.fit(train_data, order=mfts.order)
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mfts.fit(train_data, **kwargs)
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_end = time.time()
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times = _end - _start
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_crps1, _t1 = Measures.get_distribution_statistics(test_data, mfts, **kwargs)
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_crps1, _t1, _brier = Measures.get_distribution_statistics(test_data, mfts, **kwargs)
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_t1 += times
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except Exception as e:
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print(e)
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_crps1 = np.nan
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_t1 = np.nan
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ret = {'key': _key, 'obj': mfts, 'CRPS': _crps1, 'time': _t1, 'window': window_key,
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ret = {'key': _key, 'obj': mfts, 'CRPS': _crps1, 'time': _t1, 'brier': _brier, 'window': window_key,
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'steps': steps_ahead, 'method': method}
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return ret
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@ -541,11 +549,14 @@ def process_probabilistic_jobs(dataset, tag, job, conn):
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data = bUtil.process_common_data(dataset, tag, 'density', job)
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crps = deepcopy(data)
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crps.extend(["CRPS",job["CRPS"]])
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crps.extend(["crps",job["CRPS"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(crps, conn)
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time = deepcopy(data)
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time.extend(["time", job["time"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(time, conn)
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brier = deepcopy(data)
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brier.extend(["brier", job["brier"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(brier, conn)
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def print_point_statistics(data, models, externalmodels = None, externalforecasts = None, indexers=None):
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@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ from statsmodels.tsa.tsatools import lagmat
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from pyFTS.common import fts
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from pyFTS.probabilistic import ProbabilityDistribution
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class KNearestNeighbors(fts.FTS):
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"""
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K-Nearest Neighbors
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@ -13,6 +14,7 @@ class KNearestNeighbors(fts.FTS):
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def __init__(self, name, **kwargs):
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super(KNearestNeighbors, self).__init__(1, "kNN"+name)
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self.name = "kNN"
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self.shortname = "kNN"
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self.detail = "K-Nearest Neighbors"
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self.is_high_order = True
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self.has_point_forecasting = True
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@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ from statsmodels.tsa.tsatools import lagmat
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from pyFTS.common import SortedCollection, fts
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from pyFTS.probabilistic import ProbabilityDistribution
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class QuantileRegression(fts.FTS):
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"""Façade for statsmodels.regression.quantile_regression"""
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def __init__(self, name, **kwargs):
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@ -26,10 +27,11 @@ class QuantileRegression(fts.FTS):
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self.mean_qt = None
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self.lower_qt = None
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self.dist_qt = None
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self.order = kwargs.get('order', 1)
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self.shortname = "QAR("+str(self.order)+","+str(self.alpha)+")"
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def train(self, data, **kwargs):
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if kwargs.get('order', None) is not None:
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if 'order' in kwargs:
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self.order = kwargs.get('order', 1)
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if self.indexer is not None and isinstance(data, pd.DataFrame):
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@ -246,9 +246,10 @@ class EnsembleFTS(fts.FTS):
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class AllMethodEnsembleFTS(EnsembleFTS):
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def __init__(self, **kwargs):
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super(AllMethodEnsembleFTS, self).__init__(name="Ensemble FTS", **kwargs)
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def __init__(self, name, **kwargs):
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super(AllMethodEnsembleFTS, self).__init__(name="Ensemble FTS"+name, **kwargs)
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self.min_order = 3
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self.shortname ="Ensemble FTS"
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def set_transformations(self, model):
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for t in self.transformations:
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@ -20,15 +20,17 @@ partitioner = Grid.GridPartitioner(data=dataset[:800], npart=10) #, transformati
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'''
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import benchmarks as bchmk, Util as bUtil, Measures, knn, quantreg, arima
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'''
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from pyFTS.models import pwfts, song, ifts
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from pyFTS.models.ensemble import ensemble
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model = ensemble.AllMethodEnsembleFTS(partitioner=partitioner)
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'''
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model = knn.KNearestNeighbors("")
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model.fit(dataset[:800])
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tmp = model.predict(dataset[800:1000], type='distribution')
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for tmp2 in tmp:
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print(tmp2)
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Measures.get_distribution_statistics(dataset[800:1000], model)
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#tmp = model.predict(dataset[800:1000], type='distribution')
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#for tmp2 in tmp:
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# print(tmp2)
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'''
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@ -49,11 +51,12 @@ print(Measures.get_distribution_statistics(dataset[800:1000], model, steps_ahead
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from pyFTS.benchmarks import arima, naive, quantreg
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bchmk.sliding_window_benchmarks(dataset, 1000, train=0.8, inc=0.2,
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#methods=[ifts.IntervalFTS], #[pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS],
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benchmark_models=False,
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bchmk.sliding_window_benchmarks(dataset[:1000], 1000, train=0.8, inc=0.2,
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#methods=[pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS],
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benchmark_models=[],
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benchmark_methods=[arima.ARIMA for k in range(4)]
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+ [quantreg.QuantileRegression for k in range(2)],
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+ [quantreg.QuantileRegression for k in range(2)]
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+ [knn.KNearestNeighbors],
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benchmark_methods_parameters=[
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{'order': (1, 0, 0)},
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{'order': (1, 0, 1)},
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@ -61,14 +64,15 @@ bchmk.sliding_window_benchmarks(dataset, 1000, train=0.8, inc=0.2,
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{'order': (2, 0, 2)},
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{'order': 1, 'dist': True},
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{'order': 2, 'dist': True},
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{}
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],
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#transformations=[None, tdiff],
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orders=[1, 2, 3],
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#transformations=[tdiff],
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orders=[1],
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partitions=np.arange(30, 80, 5),
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progress=False, type='distribution',
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#steps_ahead=[1,4,7,10], #steps_ahead=[1]
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distributed=True, nodes=['192.168.0.110', '192.168.0.107','192.168.0.106'],
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file="benchmarks.db", dataset="TAIEX", tag="comparisons")
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#distributed=True, nodes=['192.168.0.110', '192.168.0.107','192.168.0.106'],
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file="benchmarks.tmp", dataset="TAIEX", tag="comparisons")
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#'''
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