Improvements on forecast_ahead benchmarks
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Petrônio Cândido
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471e096208
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@ -72,6 +72,9 @@ class ARIMA(fts.FTS):
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def forecast(self, ndata, **kwargs):
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raise NotImplementedError()
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def forecast_ahead(self, data, steps, **kwargs):
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return self.model.predict(steps, intervals=False).values.flatten().tolist()
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def forecast_interval(self, data, **kwargs):
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raise NotImplementedError()
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@ -92,7 +95,16 @@ class ARIMA(fts.FTS):
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return ret
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def forecast_distribution(self, data, **kwargs):
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raise NotImplementedError()
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sim_vector = self.inference(steps)
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ret = []
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for ct, sample in enumerate(sim_vector):
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pd = ProbabilityDistribution.ProbabilityDistribution(type='histogram', data=sample, nbins=500)
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ret.append(pd)
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return ret
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def forecast_ahead_distribution(self, data, steps, **kwargs):
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@ -105,12 +105,20 @@ def UStatistic(targets, forecasts):
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:param forecasts:
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:return:
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"""
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l = len(targets)
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if isinstance(targets, list):
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targets = np.array(targets)
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if isinstance(forecasts, list):
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if not isinstance(forecasts, (list, np.ndarray)):
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forecasts = np.array([forecasts])
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else:
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forecasts = np.array(forecasts)
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if not isinstance(targets, (list, np.ndarray)):
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targets = np.array([targets])
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else:
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targets = np.array(targets)
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l = forecasts.size
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l = 2 if l == 1 else l
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naive = []
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y = []
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for k in np.arange(0, l - 1):
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@ -359,6 +367,38 @@ def get_point_statistics(data, model, **kwargs):
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return ret
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def get_point_ahead_statistics(data, forecasts, **kwargs):
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"""
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Condensate all measures for point forecasters
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:param data: test data
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:param model: FTS model with point forecasting capability
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:param kwargs:
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:return: a list with the RMSE, SMAPE and U Statistic
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"""
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l = len(forecasts)
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if len(data) != l:
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raise Exception("Data and intervals have different lenghts!")
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lags = {}
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for lag in range(l):
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ret = {}
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datum = data[lag]
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forecast = forecasts[lag]
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ret['steps'] = lag
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ret['method'] = ''
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ret['rmse'] = rmse(datum, forecast)
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ret['mape'] = mape(datum, forecast)
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sample = data[lag-1:lag+1] if lag > 0 else [datum, datum]
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ret['u'] = UStatistic(sample, forecast)
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lags[lag] = ret
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return lags
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def get_interval_statistics(data, model, **kwargs):
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"""
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Condensate all measures for point interval forecasters
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@ -411,7 +451,7 @@ def get_interval_ahead_statistics(data, intervals, **kwargs):
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Condensate all measures for point interval forecasters
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:param data: test data
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:param model: FTS model with interval forecasting capability
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:param intervals: predicted intervals for each datapoint
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:param kwargs:
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:return: a list with the sharpness, resolution, coverage, .05 pinball mean,
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.25 pinball mean, .75 pinball mean and .95 pinball mean.
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@ -102,18 +102,11 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks2(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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steps_ahead = [k for k in steps_ahead]
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fts_methods = __pop('methods', None, kwargs)
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fts_methods = __pop('methods', [], kwargs)
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if fts_methods is not None:
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methods_parameters = __pop('methods_parameters', None, kwargs)
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if fts_methods is None:
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if type == 'point':
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fts_methods = get_point_methods()
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elif type == 'interval':
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fts_methods = get_interval_methods()
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elif type == 'distribution':
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fts_methods = get_probabilistic_methods()
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ix_methods = [k for k in np.arange(len(fts_methods))]
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benchmark_models = __pop("benchmark_models", False, kwargs)
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@ -162,7 +155,8 @@ def sliding_window_benchmarks2(data, windowsize, train=0.8, **kwargs):
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else:
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job = cluster.submit(method, None, None, None, None, train, test, ct, **kwargs)
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jobs.append(job)
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else:
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if fts_methods is not None:
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params = [ix_methods, orders, partitioners_methods, partitions, transformations]
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for id, instance in enumerate(product(*params)):
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fts_method = fts_methods[instance[0]]
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@ -670,6 +664,7 @@ def run_point2(fts_method, order, partitioner_method, partitions, transformation
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_end = time.time()
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times = _end - _start
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if steps_ahead == 1:
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_start = time.time()
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_rmse, _smape, _u = Measures.get_point_statistics(test_data, mfts, **kwargs)
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@ -681,6 +676,24 @@ def run_point2(fts_method, order, partitioner_method, partitions, transformation
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'size': len(mfts), 'time': times,
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'rmse': _rmse, 'smape': _smape, 'u': _u, 'window': window_key,
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'steps': steps_ahead, 'method': method}
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else:
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_start = time.time()
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forecasts = mfts.predict(test_data, **kwargs)
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_end = time.time()
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times += _end - _start
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eval = Measures.get_point_ahead_statistics(test_data[mfts.order:mfts.order+steps_ahead], forecasts)
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for key in eval.keys():
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eval[key]["time"] = times
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eval[key]["method"] = method
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ret = {'model': mfts.shortname, 'partitioner': pttr, 'order': order, 'partitions': partitions,
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'transformation': '' if transformation is None else transformation.name,
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'size': len(mfts), 'time': times,
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'window': window_key, 'steps': steps_ahead, 'method': method,
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'ahead_results': eval
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}
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return ret
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@ -812,20 +825,14 @@ def run_probabilistic2(fts_method, order, partitioner_method, partitions, transf
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def common_process_point_jobs(conn, data, job):
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data.append(job['steps'])
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data.append(job['method'])
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rmse = deepcopy(data)
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rmse.extend(["rmse", job["rmse"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(rmse, conn)
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smape = deepcopy(data)
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smape.extend(["smape", job["smape"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(smape, conn)
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u = deepcopy(data)
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u.extend(["u", job["u"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(u, conn)
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time = deepcopy(data)
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time.extend(["time", job["time"]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(time, conn)
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dta = deepcopy(data)
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dta.append(job['steps'])
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dta.append(job['method'])
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for key in ["rmse", "mape", "u", "time"]:
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if key in job:
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data2 = deepcopy(dta)
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data2.extend([key, job[key]])
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bUtil.insert_benchmark(data2, conn)
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def process_point_jobs(dataset, tag, job, conn):
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@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ class KNearestNeighbors(fts.FTS):
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self.benchmark_only = True
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self.min_order = 1
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self.alpha = kwargs.get("alpha", 0.05)
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self.max_lag = self.order
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self.lag = None
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self.k = kwargs.get("k", 30)
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self.uod = None
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@ -70,8 +71,9 @@ class KNearestNeighbors(fts.FTS):
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return [self.values[k] for k in ix.flatten() ]
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def forecast(self, data, **kwargs):
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l = len(data)
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ret = []
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for k in np.arange(self.order, len(data)):
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for k in np.arange(self.order, l+(1 if self.order == l else 0)):
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sample = data[k-self.order : k]
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@ -81,17 +83,6 @@ class KNearestNeighbors(fts.FTS):
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return ret
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def forecast_ahead(self, data, steps, **kwargs):
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start = kwargs.get('start', self.order)
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sample = [k for k in data[start - self.order: start]]
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for k in np.arange(self.order, steps + self.order):
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tmp = self.forecast(sample[k-self.order:k])
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sample.append(tmp)
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return sample[-steps]
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def forecast_interval(self, data, **kwargs):
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alpha = kwargs.get('alpha',self.alpha)
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@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ class FTS(object):
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start = kwargs.get('start_at',0)
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ret = []
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for k in np.arange(start+self.max_lag, steps):
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for k in np.arange(start+self.max_lag, steps+start+self.max_lag):
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tmp = self.forecast(data[k-self.max_lag:k], **kwargs)
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if isinstance(tmp,(list, np.ndarray)):
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@ -422,9 +422,9 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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l = len(data)
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start = kwargs.get('start', self.max_lag)
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start = kwargs.get('start_at', 0)
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ret = data[start - self.max_lag: start].tolist()
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ret = data[start: start+self.max_lag].tolist()
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for k in np.arange(self.max_lag, steps+self.max_lag):
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@ -434,7 +434,7 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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mp = self.forecast(ret[k - self.max_lag: k], **kwargs)
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ret.append(mp[0])
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return ret[self.max_lag:]
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return ret[-steps:]
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def __check_interval_bounds(self, interval):
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if len(self.transformations) > 0:
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@ -446,11 +446,9 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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def forecast_ahead_interval(self, data, steps, **kwargs):
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l = len(data)
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start = kwargs.get('start_at', 0)
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start = kwargs.get('start', self.max_lag)
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sample = data[start - self.max_lag: start]
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sample = data[start: start + self.max_lag]
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ret = [[k, k] for k in sample]
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@ -466,7 +464,7 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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ret.append([np.min(lower), np.max(upper)])
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return ret[self.order:]
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return ret[-steps:]
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def forecast_ahead_distribution(self, ndata, steps, **kwargs):
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@ -483,9 +481,9 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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nbins = kwargs.get("num_bins", 100)
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_bins = np.linspace(uod[0], uod[1], nbins)
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start = kwargs.get('start', self.max_lag)
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start = kwargs.get('start_at', 0)
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sample = ndata[start - self.max_lag: start]
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sample = ndata[start: start + self.max_lag]
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for dat in sample:
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if 'type' in kwargs:
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@ -527,7 +525,7 @@ class ProbabilisticWeightedFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
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ret.append(dist)
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return ret[self.order:]
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return ret[-steps:]
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def __str__(self):
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tmp = self.name + ":\n"
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@ -52,34 +52,46 @@ datasets['TAIEX'] = TAIEX.get_data()[:5000]
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datasets['NASDAQ'] = NASDAQ.get_data()[:5000]
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datasets['SP500'] = SP500.get_data()[10000:15000]
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methods = [
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arima.ARIMA,arima.ARIMA,
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quantreg.QuantileRegression,
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BSTS.ARIMA,BSTS.ARIMA,
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knn.KNearestNeighbors
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]
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competitor_methods = []
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competitor_methods.extend([arima.ARIMA]*3)
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competitor_methods.extend([quantreg.QuantileRegression]*2)
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competitor_methods.extend([BSTS.ARIMA]*3)
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competitor_methods.extend([knn.KNearestNeighbors]*2)
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methods_parameters = [
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{'order':(1,0,0), 'alpha':.05},
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{'order':(1,0,1), 'alpha':.05},
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{'order':1, 'dist': True},
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{'order': (1, 0, 0), 'alpha': .05},
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{'order': (1, 0, 1), 'alpha': .05},
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{'order': 1}
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competitor_methods_parameters = [
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{'order': (1, 0, 0)},
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{'order': (1, 0, 1)},
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{'order': (2, 0, 0)},
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{'order': 1, 'alpha': .5},
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{'order': 2, 'alpha': .5},
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{'order': (1, 0, 0)},
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{'order': (1, 0, 1)},
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{'order': (2, 0, 0)},
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{'order': 1},
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{'order': 2}
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]
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proposed_methods = [
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hofts.HighOrderFTS, hofts.WeightedHighOrderFTS, pwfts.ProbabilisticWeightedFTS
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]
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proposed_methods_parameters=[
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{},{},{}
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]
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for dataset_name, dataset in datasets.items():
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bchmk.sliding_window_benchmarks2(dataset, 1000, train=0.8, inc=0.2,
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benchmark_models=True,
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benchmark_methods=methods,
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benchmark_methods_parameters=methods_parameters,
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methods=[],
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methods_parameters=[{},{}],
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transformations=[None],
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orders=[],
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benchmark_methods=competitor_methods,
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benchmark_methods_parameters=competitor_methods_parameters,
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methods=proposed_methods,
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methods_parameters=proposed_methods_parameters,
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orders=[1],
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partitions=[35],
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steps_ahead=[10],
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partitions=[],
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type='distribution',
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distributed=True, nodes=['192.168.0.110', '192.168.0.107','192.168.0.106'],
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file="experiments.db", dataset=dataset_name, tag="experiments")
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progress=False, type='point',
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distributed=False, nodes=['192.168.0.110', '192.168.0.107','192.168.0.106'],
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file="tmp.db", dataset=dataset_name,
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tag="experiments")
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#'''
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