Métricas: sharpness,resolution e coverage

benchmarks.py

@@ -13,37 +13,87 @@ def Teste(par):
 	plt.plot(x,y)
 
 # Erro quadrático médio
-def rmse(forecasts,targets):
+def rmse(targets, forecasts):
-    return np.sqrt(np.nanmean((forecasts-targets)**2))
+	return np.sqrt(np.nanmean((forecasts-targets)**2))
+
+def rmse_interval(targets, forecasts):
+	fmean = [np.mean(i) for i in forecasts]
+	return np.sqrt(np.nanmean((fmean-targets)**2))
 
 # Erro Percentual médio
-def mape(forecasts,targets):
+def mape(targets, forecasts):
-    return np.mean(abs(forecasts-targets)/forecasts)
+	return np.mean(abs(forecasts-targets)/forecasts)*100
-    
+	
-def plotComparedSeries(original,fts,parameters):
+def mape_interval(targets, forecasts):
-	fig = plt.figure(figsize=[20,6])
+	fmean = [np.mean(i) for i in forecasts]
+	return np.mean(abs(fmean-targets)/fmean)*100
+
+#Sharpness - Mean size of the intervals
+def sharpness(forecasts):
+	tmp = [i[1] - i[0] for i in forecasts ]
+	return np.mean(tmp)
+
+#Resolution - Standard deviation of the intervals
+def resolution(forecasts):
+	shp = sharpness(forecasts)
+	tmp = [abs((i[1] - i[0]) - shp) for i in forecasts ]
+	return np.mean(tmp)
+
+# Percent of 
+def coverage(targets,forecasts):
+	preds = []
+	for i in np.arange(0,len(forecasts)):
+		if targets[i] >= forecasts[i][0] and targets[i] <= forecasts[i][1] :
+			preds.append(1)
+		else:
+			preds.append(1)
+	return np.mean(preds)
+
+def getIntervalStatistics(original,models):
+	ret = "Model		& RMSE		& MAPE		& Sharpness		& Resolution		& Coverage	\\ \n"
+	for fts in models:
+		forecasts = fts.forecast(original)
+		ret = ret + fts.shortname + "		& " 
+		ret = ret + str( round(rmse_interval(original[fts.order :],forecasts),2)) + "		& " 
+		ret = ret + str( round(mape_interval(original[fts.order :],forecasts),2)) + "		& " 
+		ret = ret + str( round(sharpness(forecasts),2)) + "		& " 
+		ret = ret + str( round(resolution(forecasts),2)) + "		& " 
+		ret = ret + str( round(coverage(original[fts.order :],forecasts),2)) + "	\\ \n"
+	return ret 
+
+def plotComparedSeries(original,models, colors):
+	fig = plt.figure(figsize=[25,10])
 	ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
-	forecasted = fts.forecast(original)
+	
-	#error = rmse(original[1:],forecasted[0:-1])
+	mi = []
-	#np.append(original,[None])
+	ma = []
-	ax.plot(original,color='b',label="Original")
+	
-	if fts.isInterval:
+	ax.plot(original,color='black',label="Original")
-		lower = [kk[0] for kk in forecasted]
+	count = 0
-		upper = [kk[1] for kk in forecasted]
+	for fts in models:
-		ax.set_ylim([min(lower),max(upper)])
+		forecasted = fts.forecast(original)
-		for k in np.arange(0,fts.order):
+		if fts.isInterval:
-			lower.insert(0,None)
+			lower = [kk[0] for kk in forecasted]
-			upper.insert(0,None)
+			upper = [kk[1] for kk in forecasted]
-		ax.plot(lower,color='r',label="Predicted")
+			mi.append(min(lower))
-		ax.plot(upper,color='r')
+			ma.append(max(upper))
-		
+			for k in np.arange(0,fts.order):
-	else:
+				lower.insert(0,None)
-		forecasted.insert(0,None)
+				upper.insert(0,None)
-		ax.plot(forecasted,color='r',label="Predicted")
+			ax.plot(lower,color=colors[count],label=fts.shortname)
-		ax.set_ylim([np.nanmin(forecasted),np.nanmax(forecasted)])
+			ax.plot(upper,color=colors[count])
-	handles0, labels0 = ax.get_legend_handles_labels()
+			
-	ax.legend(handles0,labels0)
+		else:
-	ax.set_title(fts.name)
+			mi.append(min(forecasted))
+			ma.append(max(forecasted))
+			forecasted.insert(0,None)
+			ax.plot(forecasted,color=colors[count],label=fts.shortname)
+			
+		handles0, labels0 = ax.get_legend_handles_labels()
+		ax.legend(handles0,labels0)
+		count = count + 1
+	#ax.set_title(fts.name)
+	ax.set_ylim([min(mi),max(ma)])
 	ax.set_ylabel('F(T)')
 	ax.set_xlabel('T')
 	ax.set_xlim([0,len(original)])

hofts.py

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ class HighOrderFLRG:
 		
 class HighOrderFTS(fts.FTS):
 	def __init__(self,name):
-		super(HighOrderFTS, self).__init__(1,"HOFTS")
+		super(HighOrderFTS, self).__init__(1,"HOFTS" + name)
 		self.name = "High Order FTS"
 		self.detail = "Chen"
 		self.order = 1

ifts.py

@@ -3,7 +3,8 @@ from pyFTS import *
 
 class IntervalFTS(hofts.HighOrderFTS):
 	def __init__(self,name):
-		super(IntervalFTS, self).__init__("IFTS")
+		super(IntervalFTS, self).__init__("IFTS " + name)
+		self.shortname = "IFTS " + name
 		self.name = "Interval FTS"
 		self.detail = "Silva, P.; Guimarães, F.; Sadaei, H."
 		self.flrgs = {}
@@ -49,8 +50,8 @@ class IntervalFTS(hofts.HighOrderFTS):
 		
 		for k in np.arange(self.order,l):
 			
-			flrs = []
+			affected_flrgs = []
-			mvs = []
+			affected_flrgs_memberships = []
 			
 			up = []
 			lo = []
@@ -81,10 +82,10 @@ class IntervalFTS(hofts.HighOrderFTS):
 					flrg = hofts.HighOrderFLRG(self.order)
 					for kk in path: flrg.appendLHS(self.sets[ kk ])
 					
-					flrs.append(flrg)
+					affected_flrgs.append(flrg)
 					
 					# Acha a pertinência geral de cada FLRG
-					mvs.append(min(self.getSequenceMembership(subset, flrg.LHS)))
+					affected_flrgs_memberships.append(min(self.getSequenceMembership(subset, flrg.LHS)))
 			else:
 				
 				mv = common.fuzzyInstance(ndata[k],self.sets)
@@ -93,18 +94,18 @@ class IntervalFTS(hofts.HighOrderFTS):
 				for kk in idx:
 					flrg = hofts.HighOrderFLRG(self.order)
 					flrg.appendLHS(self.sets[ kk ])
-					flrs.append(flrg)
+					affected_flrgs.append(flrg)
-					mvs.append(mv[kk])
+					affected_flrgs_memberships.append(mv[kk])
 			
 			count = 0
-			for flrg in flrs:
+			for flrg in affected_flrgs:
 				# achar o os bounds de cada FLRG, ponderados pela pertinência
-				up.append( mvs[count] * self.getUpper(flrg) )
+				up.append( affected_flrgs_memberships[count] * self.getUpper(flrg) )
-				lo.append( mvs[count] * self.getLower(flrg) )
+				lo.append( affected_flrgs_memberships[count] * self.getLower(flrg) )
 				count = count + 1
 			
 			# gerar o intervalo
-			norm = sum(mvs)
+			norm = sum(affected_flrgs_memberships)
 			ret.append( [ sum(lo)/norm, sum(up)/norm ] )
 				
 		return ret

pifts.py

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ class ProbabilisticFLRG(hofts.HighOrderFLRG):
 class ProbabilisticIntervalFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
 	def __init__(self,name):
 		super(ProbabilisticIntervalFTS, self).__init__("PIFTS")
+		self.shortname = "PIFTS " + name
 		self.name = "Probabilistic Interval FTS"
 		self.detail = "Silva, P.; Guimarães, F.; Sadaei, H."
 		self.flrgs = {}
@@ -84,8 +85,8 @@ class ProbabilisticIntervalFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
 		
 		for k in np.arange(self.order,l):
 			
-			flrs = []
+			affected_flrgs = []
-			mvs = []
+			affected_flrgs_memberships = []
 			norms = []
 			
 			up = []
@@ -118,10 +119,10 @@ class ProbabilisticIntervalFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
 					for kk in path: flrg.appendLHS(self.sets[ kk ])
 					
 					##
-					flrs.append( flrg )
+					affected_flrgs.append( flrg )
 					
 					# Acha a pertinência geral de cada FLRG
-					mvs.append(min(self.getSequenceMembership(subset, flrg.LHS)))
+					affected_flrgs_memberships.append(min(self.getSequenceMembership(subset, flrg.LHS)))
 			else:
 				
 				mv = common.fuzzyInstance(ndata[k],self.sets) # get all membership values
@@ -130,13 +131,13 @@ class ProbabilisticIntervalFTS(ifts.IntervalFTS):
 				for kk in idx:
 					flrg = hofts.HighOrderFLRG(self.order)
 					flrg.appendLHS(self.sets[ kk ])
-					flrs.append( flrg  )
+					affected_flrgs.append( flrg  )
-					mvs.append(mv[kk])
+					affected_flrgs_memberships.append(mv[kk])
 			
 			count = 0
-			for flrg in flrs:
+			for flrg in affected_flrgs:
-				# achar o os bounds de cada FLRG, ponderados pela pertinência
+				# achar o os bounds de cada FLRG, ponderados pela probabilidade e pertinência
-				norm = self.getProbability(flrg) * mvs[count]
+				norm = self.getProbability(flrg) * affected_flrgs_memberships[count]
 				up.append( norm * self.getUpper(flrg) )
 				lo.append( norm * self.getLower(flrg) )
 				norms.append(norm)